*Discussion question
“Approaches to Forecasting Policy Outcomes” Please respond to the following:
Using the approaches to forecasting described in Dunn (2012, p. 128), describe one public policy issue for each of the three approaches. Use at least one Base-Technique-Product combination for each policy issue. (Ex. Undocumented Immigration, extrapolative forecasting, trends extrapolation, catastrophe methodology, projection)
*Eassy assignment
Assignment 1: Argument Mapping
Write a four to five (4-5) page paper in which you:
(Note: Refer to Demonstration Exercise 3 located at the end of Chapter 1 for criteria 1-3.)
Create an argument map based on the influence diagram presented in Case 1.3 and complete all the criteria provided in the demonstration exercise, beginning with this claim: “The U.S. should return to the 55- mph speed limit in order to conserve fuel and save lives.”
Include in your map each of the following: warrants, backings, objections, and rebuttals.
Assume that the original qualifier was certainly; indicate whether the qualifier changes as we move from a simple, static, uncontested argument to a complex, dynamic and contested argument.
(Note: Refer to Demonstration Exercise 3 located at the end of Chapter 8 for criterion 4.)
Apply the argument mapping procedures presented in Chapter 8 to analyze the pros and cons (or strengths and weaknesses) of the recommendations that the U.S. should not intervene in the Balkans.
Write a one (1) page analysis that uses critical thinking to assess the overall plausibility of the claim: “The conflict in Bosnia is somebody else’s trouble. The U.S. should not intervene militarily.”
Complete an argument map to illustrate your analysis.
Appropriately incorporate at least four (4) quality sources. A quality source can be either grey literature, such as a news article, or scholarly, such as peer reviewed works. In the case of public administration, government websites are appropriate quality resources. Note: Wikipedia, SparkNotes, and similar websites do not qualify as academic resources. Visit the Strayer University Library at http://research.strayer.edu to conduct research.
Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:
Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.
Use Microsoft Word, Microsoft Draw, PowerPoint, or other graphics program to create the arguments maps for the assignment. Whichever program you use, the graphical maps must be integrated into the Word Document and labeled as a Figure with a number and title. The argument maps are part of the page length.
The course learning outcome associated with this assignment is:
Critique the process of policy argument and development.
